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亞洲金融危機一週年:堅守聯繫匯率的利弊
亞洲金融危機一週年:堅守聯繫匯率的利弊

聯繫匯率是香港經濟穩定的支柱,也是港人對香港經濟的信心基石,不能動搖。可是在亞洲金融風暴中維持聯繫匯率,香港便需付出高利率、高失業,資產價格下跌和經濟衰退的代價。聯繫匯率能否成功堅持,主要看港人對港元有沒有信心,如果失去信心,聯繫匯率便不能守住。香港當前信貸緊縮的問題不易解決,而中期的競爭力和經濟結構重整的問題更為根本和必須面對。

One Year into the Asian Financial Crisis: 
The Pros and Cons of Maintaining the Linked Exchange Rate

The linked exchange rate is the pillar of economic stability and the cornerstone of Hong Kong people's confidence in the economy of Hong Kong. It must not be undermined. In the Asian financial crisis, Hong Kong has paid the cost of maintaining the linked exchange rate through high interest rates, high unemployment, the collapse of asset prices and economic recession. Whether the linked exchange rate can be defended successfully depends very much on Hong Kong people's confidence in the Hong Kong dollar. If the confidence is lost, any defence of the linked exchange will be in vain. At present, Hong Kong is beset by the intractable short-term problem of a liquidity crunch. The medium- and long-term problems of competitiveness and economic restructuring are the most fundamental, which Hong Kong must address.
 
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